Barbara A. Mellers

13 papers A* 3Journal 8Unranked 2

Year	Rank	Type	Title / Venue / Authors
2025	J	`jnl`	Prompt Engineering Large Language Models' Forecasting Capabilities. CoRR Philipp Schoenegger, Cameron R. Jones, Philip E. Tetlock, Barbara A. Mellers
2022	A*	`conf`	Crowd Prediction Systems: Markets, Polls, and Elite Forecasters. EC Pavel Atanasov, Jens Witkowski, Barbara A. Mellers, Philip Tetlock
2021	J	`jnl`	Bias, Information, Noise: The BIN Model of Forecasting. Manag. Sci. Ville A. Satopää, Marat Salikhov, Philip E. Tetlock, Barbara A. Mellers
2020	A*	`conf`	Small Steps to Accuracy: Incremental Belief Updaters Are Better Forecasters. EC Pavel Atanasov, Jens Witkowski, Lyle H. Ungar, Barbara A. Mellers, Philip Tetlock
2019	J	`jnl`	Multiple Goals as Reference Points: One Failure Makes Everything Else Feel Worse. Manag. Sci. Evan Weingarten, Sudeep Bhatia, Barbara A. Mellers
2017	A*	`conf`	Assessing Objective Recommendation Quality through Political Forecasting. EMNLP H. Andrew Schwartz, Masoud Rouhizadeh, Michael Bishop, Philip Tetlock, Barbara A. Mellers, Lyle H. Ungar
2017	J	`jnl`	Confidence Calibration in a Multiyear Geopolitical Forecasting Competition. Manag. Sci. Don A. Moore, Samuel A. Swift, Angela Minster, Barbara A. Mellers, Lyle H. Ungar, Philip Tetlock, Heather H. J. Yang, Elizabeth R. Tenney
2017	J	`jnl`	Distilling the Wisdom of Crowds: Prediction Markets vs. Prediction Polls. Manag. Sci. Pavel Atanasov, Phillip Rescober, Eric Stone, Samuel A. Swift, Emile Servan-Schreiber, Philip Tetlock, Lyle H. Ungar, Barbara A. Mellers
2016	J	`jnl`	Validating the Contribution-Weighted Model: Robustness and Cost-Benefit Analyses. Decis. Anal. Eva Chen, David V. Budescu, Shrinidhi K. Lakshmikanth, Barbara A. Mellers, Philip E. Tetlock
2014	J	`jnl`	Two Reasons to Make Aggregated Probability Forecasts More Extreme. Decis. Anal. Jonathan Baron, Barbara A. Mellers, Philip E. Tetlock, Eric Stone, Lyle H. Ungar
2013	—	`conf`	The Marketcast Method for Aggregating Prediction Market Forecasts. SBP Pavel Atanasov, Phillip Rescober, Eric Stone, Emile Servan-Schreiber, Barbara A. Mellers, Philip Tetlock, Lyle H. Ungar
2012	—	`conf`	The Good Judgment Project: A Large Scale Test of Different Methods of Combining Expert Predictions. AAAI Fall Symposium: Machine Aggregation of Human Judgment Lyle H. Ungar, Barbara A. Mellers, Ville Satopää, Philip Tetlock, Jon Baron
1996	J	`jnl`	The Effects of Pictorial Realism, Delay of Visual Feedback, and Observer Interactivity on the Subjective Sense of Presence. Presence Teleoperators Virtual Environ. Robert Welch, Theodore Blackmon, Andrew Liu, Barbara A. Mellers, Lawrence W. Stark