Barbara A. Mellers

13 papers A* 3Journal 8Unranked 2
YearRankTypeTitle / Venue / Authors
2025 J jnl
Prompt Engineering Large Language Models' Forecasting Capabilities.
CoRR
Philipp Schoenegger, Cameron R. Jones, Philip E. Tetlock, Barbara A. Mellers
2022 A* conf
Crowd Prediction Systems: Markets, Polls, and Elite Forecasters.
EC
Pavel Atanasov, Jens Witkowski, Barbara A. Mellers, Philip Tetlock
2021 J jnl
Bias, Information, Noise: The BIN Model of Forecasting.
Manag. Sci.
Ville A. Satopää, Marat Salikhov, Philip E. Tetlock, Barbara A. Mellers
2020 A* conf
Small Steps to Accuracy: Incremental Belief Updaters Are Better Forecasters.
EC
Pavel Atanasov, Jens Witkowski, Lyle H. Ungar, Barbara A. Mellers, Philip Tetlock
2019 J jnl
Multiple Goals as Reference Points: One Failure Makes Everything Else Feel Worse.
Manag. Sci.
Evan Weingarten, Sudeep Bhatia, Barbara A. Mellers
2017 A* conf
Assessing Objective Recommendation Quality through Political Forecasting.
EMNLP
H. Andrew Schwartz, Masoud Rouhizadeh, Michael Bishop, Philip Tetlock, Barbara A. Mellers, Lyle H. Ungar
2017 J jnl
Confidence Calibration in a Multiyear Geopolitical Forecasting Competition.
Manag. Sci.
Don A. Moore, Samuel A. Swift, Angela Minster, Barbara A. Mellers, Lyle H. Ungar, Philip Tetlock, Heather H. J. Yang, Elizabeth R. Tenney
2017 J jnl
Distilling the Wisdom of Crowds: Prediction Markets vs. Prediction Polls.
Manag. Sci.
Pavel Atanasov, Phillip Rescober, Eric Stone, Samuel A. Swift, Emile Servan-Schreiber, Philip Tetlock, Lyle H. Ungar, Barbara A. Mellers
2016 J jnl
Validating the Contribution-Weighted Model: Robustness and Cost-Benefit Analyses.
Decis. Anal.
Eva Chen, David V. Budescu, Shrinidhi K. Lakshmikanth, Barbara A. Mellers, Philip E. Tetlock
2014 J jnl
Two Reasons to Make Aggregated Probability Forecasts More Extreme.
Decis. Anal.
Jonathan Baron, Barbara A. Mellers, Philip E. Tetlock, Eric Stone, Lyle H. Ungar
2013 — conf
The Marketcast Method for Aggregating Prediction Market Forecasts.
SBP
Pavel Atanasov, Phillip Rescober, Eric Stone, Emile Servan-Schreiber, Barbara A. Mellers, Philip Tetlock, Lyle H. Ungar
2012 — conf
The Good Judgment Project: A Large Scale Test of Different Methods of Combining Expert Predictions.
AAAI Fall Symposium: Machine Aggregation of Human Judgment
Lyle H. Ungar, Barbara A. Mellers, Ville Satopää, Philip Tetlock, Jon Baron
1996 J jnl
The Effects of Pictorial Realism, Delay of Visual Feedback, and Observer Interactivity on the Subjective Sense of Presence.
Presence Teleoperators Virtual Environ.
Robert Welch, Theodore Blackmon, Andrew Liu, Barbara A. Mellers, Lawrence W. Stark